Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (4)

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (4)

Source: Civil Aviation Resource Net Expert Author: Xu Xiangdong 2009-03-31 19:19:46 I have two sentences ( 0 )

[ professional classification ] finance and finance [ Article number ] 15-2009-0077

Third, comparative analysis

(1) Basic theoretical analysis

1, the basic meaning

It mainly analyzes and compares various related figures in the financial statements, especially comparing the statements of one period with another period or several periods to judge the evolution trend of a company's financial status and operating performance and Changes in status in the industry. The purpose of the comparative analysis method is to determine the main reasons for the company's financial status and changes in operating results; to determine whether the company's financial status and development results of the business results are beneficial to investors; predict the company's future development trend. Comparative analysis is a dynamic analysis based on the overall analysis. Based on the difference analysis method and the ratio analysis method, it can effectively compensate for its shortcomings and is an important means of financial analysis.

2, method classification

According to the comparison method, it can be divided into two basic categories: difference comparison analysis and ratio comparison analysis.

(1) Comparative analysis of differences

The difference comparison analysis is to reveal the absolute degree of the phenomenon change by subtracting the difference between two comparable data. In the actual analysis, the specific methods of comparative analysis of differences mainly include: actual and planned budget comparison, vertical comparison, and horizontal comparison.

(2) Ratio comparison analysis

Ratio comparison analysis, ratio analysis, is the most basic and important method of financial analysis. It links the two related factors that affect the financial situation, and calculates the ratio to reflect the relationship between them, so as to evaluate the financial status of the enterprise. A financial analysis method of operating results.

3. Case analysis

We take A company as an example for comparative analysis.

(1) Vertical comparison

1 Vertical comparison of absolute values ​​The vertical comparison of absolute values ​​is to directly compare the absolute values ​​of the subjects on the financial statements to achieve the purpose of understanding the relationship between the subjects.

See the table below, the numbers in the table are assumed.

A company's 2004, 2005, 2006 profit and loss statement (unit: 10,000 yuan)

2004 2005 2006
Sales revenue 600 660 780
Cost of sales 432 462 530.4
Gross sales 168 198 249.6
Operating expenses 93 112.2 140.4
Operating profit 75 85.8 109.2
Interest expense 6.6 7.26 9.2
Profit before tax 68.4 78.54 100
Income tax 20.52 25.92 36
Profit after tax 47.88 52.62 64

Looking at the table vertically, you can get a preliminary understanding of the three annual operating results of Company A and the relationship between the various subjects in the table. This is the result of the difference analysis method. However, due to the shortcomings of the difference analysis method, the vertical comparison of absolute values ​​is more difficult to display the relationship between the subjects, so the vertical comparison of the percentages is often used in the analysis.

A vertical comparison of the percentage of the vertical percentage of 2 percentages means that the subjects on the same table are converted into percentages, and the number of a particular item on the table is taken as 100%. The special item, on the balance sheet, is the total assets or total shareholders' equity, which is the sales income on the income statement; the other accounts are divided by the number of the special items to obtain the respective percentages of other subjects. A report after each account on the report is converted into a percentage is called a common ratio report. Obviously, the common ratio report is the application of the ratio analysis method.

Using a vertical comparison of percentages, investors can clearly see the relationship between a subject and the total number on the table, or the importance of the subject in the table and the reasons for the importance or weakening of the subject. For example, from the percentage of each asset to the total assets, the relative importance of current assets and fixed assets can be seen. It can also be seen that the proportion of total assets is raised from short-term creditors, long-term creditors and shareholders.

From the table, we can calculate the common profit and loss statement of company A for three years.

Looking at the table vertically, we can see that the sales cost, operating expenses, interest expenses, income tax and other items account for the percentage of sales revenue, as well as the sales gross profit margin, operating net profit margin, pre-tax profit margin, and profit after tax. It is also clear from the table that the reason for the increase in profits per year is mainly due to the increase in sales revenue and the reduction in sales costs. Although the vertical comparison of percentages makes up for the lack of vertical comparison of absolute values, it is inevitable that it is limited because it only knows the relative proportion of a certain subject and does not know the amount of a certain subject. Because the cardinality is different, the same number has a different percentage, and the same percentage also represents a different number. The interest rate and the after-tax profit rate of the 2004 and 2005 years are the same, but the interest expenses and after-tax profits represented by the sales are different. For the same reason, the absolute value of a small percentage may be larger than the absolute value of a large percentage due to the difference in cardinality. For example, a company had a sales income of 5 million last year, a profit after tax of 500,000, a sales profit rate of 10%, a sales income of 10 million this year, a profit after tax of 800,000, and a sales profit rate of 8%, although the sales profit rate was higher than last year. Small, but the profit is much larger than last year. It can be seen that two vertical comparison methods must be combined to make up for their respective shortcomings.

3 The combination of absolute value and percentage vertical comparison is on the same report, that is, the absolute number is listed, and the percentage is listed to facilitate a comprehensive vertical comparison. The following table is the result of the combination of the above two tables. Due to the length of the relationship, the profit and loss situation of 2004 was abandoned. Whether the reason continues to exist. Horizontal comparative analysis can make up for this deficiency and can effectively predict the future development trend and degree of a certain subject or ratio. There are three common ways to compare horizontally:

First, the horizontal comparison directly on the comparative financial statements is to directly compare the subjects directly in the above-mentioned comparative financial statements and common ratio statements prepared in absolute financial terms. This is the simplest horizontal comparison method.

In the two tables, you can see that the absolute amount of each subject is increasing year by year, and the percentage is basically increased year by year except for the proportion of sales cost to sales revenue, so that A company has been in the past three years. The income is in good condition and the prospects are bright.

Second, the horizontal comparison of the growth rate of the ring ratio is to compare the previous period of a certain subject or ratio with a certain subject or ratio of the previous period when the horizontal comparison is made, and then find the growth rate of the next period to the previous period.

There are two calculation methods: one is to reduce the later figures in the adjacent two periods of a certain subject or ratio by the previous period, and the growth is divided by the previous period. The result is expressed as a percentage. This method is intuitive and uses Difference analysis method. The calculation formula is: the ratio growth rate = the next period number - the previous period number, the previous period number × 100%, and the other method is obtained by the ring index (that is, the growth rate of the ring ratio), that is, a certain subject or ratio of the previous period is 100. Divide the number of a certain subject or ratio in the previous period by the number of the previous period or the number of the quotient, and multiply the quotient by 100, which is the index of the next period. The next period index is reduced by 100, which is the next period to the previous period. Growth rate. Since each period index is the base period (100) in the previous period, it is called the ring index. The calculation formula is as follows: ring rate growth rate = (ring index -100) × 100% = [(a certain subject or ratio in the previous period, a certain subject or ratio × 100%) - 100] × 100%.

As can be seen from the absolute value column, although the absolute value of sales cost of Company A in 2005 increased by 6.94% compared with 2004, and increased by 14.81% in 2006 compared with 2004, the absolute growth rate relative to sales revenue and after-tax profit. In fact, the growth rate of sales costs is much lower; the profit after tax in 2006 can be increased by 21.63% compared with 2005. One of the important reasons is that the cost of sales is not growing in parallel with sales revenue. In other words, the cost of sales is relatively lower than the sales revenue in 2006.

It can be clearly seen from the table percentage column that the proportion of sales cost of A company to sales revenue is decreasing year by year, and it decreased by 2.78% (100-97.22×100%) in 2005 compared with the previous year. The decrease of 2.86% (100-97.14×100) further proves that the previous reduction in sales cost is an important reason for the increase in after-tax profit. The reason why the after-tax profit margin in 2005 was not higher than that in 2004 was that the percentage of income tax increased significantly, reaching 14.91%.

3. The horizontal comparison of the fixed base growth rate is based on the number of a certain subject or ratio in a certain period, and the number of subsequent periods or ratios is compared with the base number, and then the growth rate of each period to the base period is obtained. There are two calculation methods: one is to reduce the number of the subsequent periods by the base period number, and obtain the growth amount of each period, and divide by one by one. The results are expressed as a percentage, and the growth rate of each period to the base period is obtained separately. . The calculation formula is as follows: fixed base growth rate = reporting period number - base period digital base period number × 100% Another method is to obtain the base index (fixed base development speed), that is, the number of a certain subject or ratio as the base period index of 100, The period number is divided by the base period number of the subject or ratio and multiplied by 100, so that the index value of the subsequent periods is compared with the base period. The base index is reduced by 100 and multiplied by 100%, which is the growth rate of the base period during the reporting period. . The calculation formula is as follows: regular growth rate = (fixed base index -100) × 100% = [report period digital base period number × 100) - 100] × 100% As can be seen from the table, the absolute value of the sales cost in 2005 is 2004. The annual increase was 6.94%. In 2006, it increased by 22.78% compared with 2004. However, the percentage of sales cost decreased by 2.76% in 2005 compared with 2004, and decreased by 5.56% in 2006 compared with 2004. The comparison table shows that the comparison of the index of the ring index and the comparison of the fixed base index are similar. They all have a clearer analysis and prediction of the development status, causes and future development trends of a certain subject or ratio over the years. The difference is that the base is fixed. The index is based on a fixed period, and the previous index is the base period.

(3) Standard comparison Investors should set an objective standard in advance whether to conduct longitudinal comparative analysis or horizontal comparative analysis of financial statements, and then compare the relevant financial data of the company with the standard for objective evaluation and analysis. The company's financial status and operating level. The analysis and comparison criteria commonly used in financial analysis are: taking the company's financial budget target as the standard, the peer-to-peer number as the standard, the company's past actual completion number as the standard, and the recognized average ratio as the standard.

1Comparing with the company's financial budget objectives The financial budget target is the financial plan target. By comparing the financial performance value of the current year with the target value of the current financial budget, the completion schedule of the financial budget, the expected completion degree and the actual completion degree can be calculated, so as to correctly evaluate the financial status and operational efficiency of the enterprise; It is necessary to determine the correctness and advancement of the financial budget of the enterprise and analyze the management level of the enterprise. Here, whether the financial budget target is a valid standard depends on the scientificity and conformity of the financial budget plan. Otherwise, using this standard to conduct financial analysis loses its meaning.

2 Compared with the actual figures completed by the company in the past, the company will compare and analyze the relevant financial data of the company with its historical data to determine whether the company's financial status has improved this year and whether the business performance has improved.

Based on the actual number of the company's past completions, it is generally based on the company's characteristics, the company's financial history, and find the best historical indicators to compare with the financial performance of the year. By comparing and revealing the development trend and development speed of relevant financial indicators, it reflects the improvement of the company's management level and helps to discover the problems of the company's operation and management. Taking the best historical indicators of the company's finance as the comparative standard is fundamentally a vertical comparison of the company itself. If it is not combined with the horizontal analysis of the financial statements of the same industry, it is often difficult to fully explain the actual level of the company's finances and operations. For example, suppose that the company's current after-tax profit is 10% higher than the previous period of the best year. The score seems to be good, but if the average profit growth rate of the same industry in the current year is 15%, then other conditions remain unchanged. It can only show that the company is not operating well and its competitiveness is weak.

3Compared with the recognized average ratio standard, the relevant financial ratio of the company's reporting period is compared with the socially accepted general ratio standard under the same conditions, so that the company's financial ratio can be judged. .

For example, it is generally considered that the current ratio should be above 2:1, the quick ratio should be above 0.5:1, the fixed ratio should be below 2:1, the debt ratio should be below 3:1, and the ratio should be above 25%. The company's current ratio, quick ratio and equity ratio are lower than the above-mentioned average recognized standards, while the fixed ratio and debt ratio are higher than the above criteria, but there are no other special circumstances. Generally speaking, the relevant financial ratio is in a bad state. There is a problem with the financial structure. Using socially accepted average ratio standards for analysis, it is important to note that you should not be careful.

4Compared with the peer digital standard, the company's financial status and operating level are compared with the average or best figure in the same industry. From this, we can see the company's advanced (backward) degree and its gap, in order to tap potential and improve The company's management level indicates the direction.

Compared with peer-to-peer digital standards, it is a true horizontal comparison. It can also effectively compensate for the shortcomings that are limited to the internal financial systems and compared with historical financial data. However, because different companies often have various differences in terms of scale of operation, business structure, geographical environment, and accounting methods, sometimes some analysis comparisons are lost. Therefore, when comparing with the peer digital standards, it is necessary to pay attention to eliminate the incomparable factors, so as to ensure the accuracy of the analysis and comparison.

(II) Comparative analysis of airports

1. Comparative analysis of business volume

Civil aviation throughput airport throughput statistics

airport Passenger throughput
Ranking year 2006 2005 Increase or decrease
total 331973261 284351063 16.7
Beijing 1 48748298 41004008 18.9
Pudong, Shanghai 2 26788586 23664967 13.2
Guangzhou 3 26222037 23558274 11.3
Shanghai Hongqiao 4 19336517 17797365 8.6
Shenzhen 5 18356069 16283071 12.7
Xiamen 11 7501004 6585489 13.9

Statistics on the number of aircraft movements in civil aviation airports

airport Take-off and landing
Ranking year 2006 2005 Increase or decrease
total 3486397 3056521 14.1
Beijing 1 378888 341681 10.9
Pudong, Shanghai 3 231994 205046 13.1
Guangzhou 2 232404 211309 10.0
Shanghai Hongqiao 4 177626 169957 4.5
Shenzhen 5 169493 151430 11.9
Xiamen 12 77355 67014 15.4

In 2006, the national passenger throughput increased by an average of 16.7%, and the average number of aircraft movements increased by 14.1%. The passenger throughput of Beijing Airport, Shanghai Pudong Airport, Guangzhou Airport, Shenzhen Airport and Xiamen Airport increased by 18.9% in 2006, respectively. 13.2%, 11.3%, 12.7% and 13.9%, while the aircraft increased by 10.9%, 13.1%, 10.0%, 11.9% and 15.4% respectively, showing a good development trend. The potential of listed airports has been further developed, and in the long run, it is necessary to expand the throughput. For example, the second phase of Shanghai Airport has been fully launched. After completion, the throughput capacity will reach 40 million passengers per year. Guangzhou Airport has just entered the golden growth period after the expansion of construction, and will soon reach the throughput level of 30 million passengers per year. . After the completion of the third phase of the Capital Airport, the annual passenger throughput will reach 80 million/year, truly achieving the operational level of the world's first-class airport. Judging from China Aviation's medium-term development goals, the capacity of China's hub airports is currently expanding.

From the perspective of China Aviation's medium-term development goals, the capacity of China's hub airports will only be able to guarantee the development of the aviation market in 2010 after the large-scale expansion of the construction. By 2020, China's aviation market will expand four times, and the hub airport's throughput will be expanded. The capacity will need to be expanded by more than five times, so the long-term development potential of airport-listed companies is huge and amazing.

2. Comparison of income growth

In 2005, the revenue growth of airport listed companies, Shenzhen Airport, Guangzhou Airport, Shanghai Airport and Xiamen Airport increased by 10.42%, 39.48%, 13.98% and 15.92% respectively, of which Guangzhou Airport experienced explosive growth due to the opening of the new airport in the second half of the year. Compared with the other three airports, Xiamen Airport and Shanghai Airport are 5 points and 3 points ahead of Shenzhen Airport.

In the first quarter of 2006, the growth of airport listed companies' revenues showed new changes. Shenzhen Airport, Guangzhou Airport, Shanghai Airport and Xiamen Airport increased by 20.18%, 32.20%, 11.54% and 11.45% respectively, of which Guangzhou Airport was still because of the new airport last year. The use of the second half of the year led to a relatively large growth year-on-year. Compared with the other three airports, the growth of Xiamen Airport and Shanghai Airport slowed down, but still maintained a growth rate of more than 11%, while Shenzhen Airport increased by more than 20% year-on-year, mainly due to : Passenger throughput and cargo and mail throughput increased by 22.4% and 25.3% respectively. The main business income was 275,157,700 yuan and the net profit was 103,336,600 yuan, up 20.19% and 17.29% respectively, indicating that Shenzhen Airport experienced considerable growth in passenger throughput growth rate and cargo and mail throughput growth rate in the first quarter of 2006. The amazing growth is worthy of investors' attention.

3. Comparison of gross profit margins

Shanghai Airport has been leading the industry in terms of gross profit margin for many years. The gross profit margins in 2004, 2005 and 2006 were 59.82%, 60.82% and 63.20%, respectively, indicating that the company's business management level is first-class, and Continue to improve and improve; the gross profit margins of Xiamen Airport in the first quarter of 2004, 2005 and 2006 were: 48.28%, 52.72% and 58.38%, respectively. It can be said that the progress of Xiamen Airport is very large, just over a year, the gross profit margin It has increased by 10%, and it is directly approaching the "big brother" Shanghai Airport. If this level is maintained throughout 2006, it will be amazing. From the first quarter of 2006, the gross profit margin will not increase much. The management level of Shanghai Airport; the gross profit margins of Shenzhen Airport in 2004, 2005 and 2006 were 46.95%, 46.96% and 50.75%, respectively, and the growth was relatively slow, indicating that the income growth was also at the same time, the cost control was also the same. The proportion has increased substantially. At present, it is 8 percentage points behind Xiamen Airport of the same grade. This is a relatively large gap. It is necessary to seriously improve and reduce costs in order to truly convert income growth into Run's growth; gross profit margins of Guangzhou New Baiyun Airport in 2004, 2005 and 2006 were 54.40%, 44.82% and 48.45%, respectively. Due to the new airport being put into use, the depreciation of fixed assets and the start-up costs increased significantly. Interest rates have dropped by nearly 10 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2006, there has been considerable improvement. However, it still needs a lot of work to return to normal levels. In the first quarter of 2006, it was still 15 percentage points behind Shanghai Airport.

4. Comparative analysis of three expenses

In 2005, the three expenses of Shenzhen Airport led by 4.93%, compared with 6.24% in 2004, which was more than 20%, which exceeded the Shanghai Airport, which was far ahead in the past few years, and continued to lead with 5.65% in the first quarter of 2006. It shows that the level of operation and management of Shenzhen Airport has reached the domestic first-class level; although Shanghai Airport has reached the advanced 5.59% level of the industry, it has increased by more than 50% in 2004, mainly because of the significant decrease in financial income caused by investment growth. In the first quarter of 2006, the administrative expenses increased by more than 42% year-on-year. At the same time, the financial expenses have changed from income to expenditure. Therefore, the three expense rates in the first quarter of 2006 have dropped from the boss to the third; Xiamen Airport has three items in 2005. The expense rate reached a general level of 8.35%, but in the first quarter of 2006, it has dropped to a relatively good level of 6.97%, which surpassed the previous level of 7.7% of the Shanghai Airport, indicating that the management level of Xiamen Airport is continuously improving, and Shanghai The airport has a relatively large retreat; Guangzhou Baiyun Airport is due to the new airport, three cost rate water

The management expenses suddenly increased sharply and over-proportionedly, and the substantial increase in income could not be reflected in the improvement of performance. In 2005, the three expense rate levels exceeded 350% of Shenzhen Airport, and in the first quarter of 2006, it still exceeded 319% of Shenzhen Airport. And there is basically no sign of improvement, becoming a veritable "deputy squad leader" in the airport industry, which is worrying, indicating that more income is also offset by the excessive increase in cost and expense, and the performance is seriously swallowed up by the internal cost.

5. Comparative analysis of net profit

Due to the above data analysis, the profit level of airport-listed companies is also reflected. In 2005, Shenzhen Airport and Xiamen Airport led the growth rate of 40.16% and 20.99%. Shanghai Airport showed signs of weak growth, only increasing by 7.55%. Baiyun Airport decreased by 11.31%; in the first quarter of 2006, Shenzhen Airport continued to lead with a growth rate of 17.28%, while Baiyun Airport increased profit by 14.76% due to certain cost improvement, Xiamen Airport still ranked 11.44% growth rate. Third, Shanghai Airport continues to maintain a low growth rate.

6. Comparative analysis of market value

By comparing the market value of the airport into unit landings and unit passengers to compare and analyze the market value of several listed airports, we find that the market value of Baiyun Airport is significantly lower than that of several other listed airports, while Baiyun Airport is the capacity utilization rate. The lowest airport.

7. Comparative analysis of labor costs

Through the comparative analysis of labor costs of listed airports, we found that the labor cost of Baiyun Airport is significantly higher than other airports.

project Baiyun Airport capital Airport Pudong Airport Shenzhen Airport
Labor cost (million/month) 41 31 36 19
Number of employees (person) 9,147 8,872 1,342 6,669
Unit staff cost (yuan/month) 4,524 3,469 8,314 5,354
Take-off and landing times/number of people 12 43 134 29
Passenger volume / number of passengers 1,365 5,136 16,804 2,977
Labor cost / take-off and landing (yuan / shelf) 2,226 1,212 1,878 1,514
Labor cost / passenger throughput (yuan / person) 20 11 16 12

8. Comparative analysis of earnings per share

The earnings per share rankings are: Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shenzhen Airport.

9. Comparative analysis of net assets per share

The ranking of net assets per share is: Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xiamen, Shenzhen Airport.

10. Comparative analysis of return on net assets

The ROE rankings are: Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen, and Guangzhou airports.

11. Comparative analysis of net profit rate

The net profit rate is ranked as follows: Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen, and Guangzhou airports.

Comparative analysis of 12 net profit growth rate

The ranking of net profit growth rate is: Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai Airport.

13. Comparative analysis of asset-liability ratio

The asset-liability ratio is ranked as follows: Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xiamen airports.

Analysis conclusion: Through comparative analysis of market airport financial statement data, we believe that:

(1) Guangzhou Airport's solvency is relatively weak;

(2) The profitability of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Xiamen airports is relatively strong;

(3) Shenzhen, Xiamen and Shanghai airports have relatively strong operational capabilities;

(4) Shanghai and Guangzhou airports have relatively strong development capabilities;

(5) The labor cost of Guangzhou Airport is relatively high;

(6) The market value of Guangzhou Airport is significantly lower than that of several other listed airports, while Baiyun Airport is the airport with the lowest capacity utilization rate;

(7) Guangzhou Airport's asset-liability ratio is significantly higher than other airports.

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (1)

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (2)

Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (3)

Serial to be continued...