Real estate industry: turning or brewing

Policy side: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued five criteria for restricting the purchase of cities. According to the data of 70 large and medium-sized cities announced by the Bureau of Statistics, 20 cities were selected as the next step in the expansion of restrictions on purchases (accounting for approximately 4% of national sales). In this weekly report, we compared the sales of national commercial residential properties before and after the purchase restriction expansion. For the frontier scenario test results, if the purchase limit is strictly enforced, the average marginal impact of new limited- purchase cities will be 1.22%.

New housing market: differentiation between first and second-tier cities. Among the 15 key cities we monitored, 7 cities rose month-on-month. Among the first-tier cities, due to the overall increase in sales, Shanghai and Shenzhen witnessed a larger increase, while most second-tier cities fell.

Inventory: Stock pressures are on the upside. Last week, we monitored the saleable area of ​​cities. The number of cities available for sale climbed slowly. The number of cities that had gone through the clearing cycle was more than that of the other cities. The rate of change in other cities except Suzhou was not large. Most of them were within 10%, and some of them were over 10%.

Second-hand housing market: ups and downs. Last week, second-hand housing transactions also have a differentiation, but overall it is at a lower level. Of the 7 cities we monitored, the number rose by 4 from the previous month to 4 in the previous quarter. Among them, the decline in Chengdu was significant, and the increase in Dalian was relatively large; the year-on-year figures showed a downward trend except for Hangzhou.

Land market: The supply of land in the 20 major cities last week fell sharply, and trading volume rose again. The area of ​​land introduced in 20 major cities decreased by 33.44% compared with last week; the land area of ​​transactions increased by 23.37% compared with last week. Last week, the land price of residential land remained low, and the premium rate was generally low. Except for individual plots, the rest was within 10%.

This week's view: At present, under the situation that the pressure on inventory funds has risen in an all-round manner, the first-tier cities will bear the brunt of the fundamental period of fundamental adjustment. Concerns over the expansion of purchase restrictions will accelerate the gradual roll-out of price easing. We believe that there are two evolutionary paths in the later stages of fundamentals and stock price turnaround: First, under the premise of uncertain overseas factors and the fact that prices are loosened in real terms, the policy outlook in the latter stage tends to be calm. Will be even stronger, then we think that even if the demand deteriorates in the late period of economic deterioration, real estate stocks will at least have relative income (for example, in the worst economic 9 months from October 2008 to June 2009, real estate stocks will have excessive returns. There are eight months in the month.) Second, if the economic outlook is stable, there will be no obvious contraction in demand, and after the off-season sales will resume upwards, and property stocks will also gain relative income and absolute income. Therefore, the current stock price adjustment due to the restriction of purchase expansion will be an excellent opportunity for the participation of real estate stocks. We continue to propose actively deploying high-quality real estate stocks with low valuations and good performance, including Vanke, Poly, and Kaifeng. We also recommend gradually deploying resources in the period of accelerating resource realization and Fuxing and Lushang with strong performance flexibility in the next two years.

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